Don't Call it a Crash

I heard an interesting story on a podcast that really stuck with me. The idea was that many people who were aboard the Titanic died because they didn't believe the ship was sinking until it was too late. Experts agree that with better planning before embarking on its maiden voyage, and better communication from the crew immediately after the ship struck the iceberg, many more lives could have been saved.

The year is 1912. Major news outlets have declared the Titanic "unsinkable". You're either a member of Europe's elite enjoying the pinnacle of luxury for the era, or you're an emigrant seeking a new life in the United States. The ship strikes an iceberg and starts filling up with water but all is well on the deck. Dinner is being served, the musicians are playing, waltzes are being waltzed.

Word begins to travel that the ship has struck an iceberg and is sinking. There's talk of lifeboats. There are whispers of icy water. You don't like the sound of either of those things because you're up on deck and everything feels fine. Why would you preemptively get in a lifeboat and lower it into choppy, icy water when it's warm and cozy in the dining hall? There's been no shouting from the rooftops, no emergency announcements from the captain, and no sirens wailing to give you any sense of urgency.

So you wait.

That's what a lot of folks aboard the Titanic did and it cost them their lives. By the time the Titanic began to sink bow-first, it was too late. People began to panic in a multitude of different languages. One of the early lifeboats that was lowered into the ocean cast off with only 12 passengers when it could have taken 40. By the time panic set in, there weren't enough boats and it was difficult to get the boats that were available into the water safely. Because you know, the ship broke in half.

Is Cory trying to tell me that the real estate market is sinking like the Titanic?

No, that's not what I'm trying to say AT ALL. But you know me, and I have a flair for the dramatic.

Today's Hot Take is about the state of the market. This is not intended to tell you about how the market feels, this one is data-driven. Data makes some people happy and I love that for them. My brain doesn't really work that way. My brain works in stories and pictures, hence the Titanic reference. Either way, even though the market is NOT CRASHING LIKE THE TITANIC, you can think of me as your well-informed, well-prepared captain. I'm the crew who has trained for this exact scenario and can help you safely exit the vessel if that's what you decide is best for you.

So what's the state of the market?

I'll start by putting some context around expectations vs. reality. The reality is that real estate always has ups and downs. Historically, homes in the US have experienced nominal appreciation by a modest 4.4% with prices appreciating more some years, and less others. Remember, this is national data. Local markets can be drastically different. The post-COVID boom turned all of that upside down and sent prices skyrocketing. Money was cheap, we were getting stimulus checks in the mail, and the floodgates of homebuyers were opened.

Consider this: data from Redfin shows that the median sales price in Durham in April 2019 was $290k. Those were the days. In April of 2026, data showed the median sales price was $449k. That's an increase of roughly 55%. Other figures may show slightly different numbers but we can reasonably assume that the median price of a home went up 50-60%.

Below is a graph of national home prices:

Look at April 2020 to April 2022. Pretty wild, right?

So now that we have some context around what the market did a few years ago, let's talk about what the market is doing now.

Data from Redfin shows that home prices in Durham are trending down 2.6% year over year. The median price per square foot is down 5.9% since last year. 42% of homes that hit the market end up lowering the price at some point and on average, homes sell for 98.4% of their asking price. Median days on market is 35. SOURCE

Now let's talk about inventory. At one point during COVID, there were only 356 active listings in Durham and Chapel Hill COMBINED. As of August 2026, there were 2,196. Roughly 6x as many houses available to buyers. There are two factors to consider here. The first is that more sellers are listing their homes and the second is that homes are taking longer to sell so they start to accumulate on the market.

Here's the picture I want you to see:

The proverbial ship is not sinking. We are experiencing a correction to an unnatural real estate market inflated by cheap money and COVID craziness. In Durham, there is still a strong demand for homes which has kept prices high, yet that demand is cooling off because of the increase in inventory we are experiencing. We are moving toward a more balanced market as opposed to a high-pressure seller's market. That can feel scary in the moment, but just know it's a normal aspect of the cyclical nature of the real estate market

For sellers: a challenge I'm experiencing with some of my sellers is that they feel like they're losing by listing in this market. Now for some, it might feel like a loss. If you bought or refinanced in 2023 or 2024 and want to sell your house today, there is a chance you'll be bringing money to the table. What I say to those folks is even if you have to bring money to the table, calculate what you would have spent in rent and see if it's still a loss.

But if you bought before 2023, congratulations. You are likely sitting on a nice pile of equity. Maybe not as much as you had 6-12 months ago but look on the bright side, you won the appreciation game. You passed GO again, and again, and again.

Given everything I laid out before, this is what I want sellers to hold in their hearts and their minds:

• The market is punishing three things right now: poor condition, overpricing, and shoddy presentation. The good news is that all of these things are within your control
• If your home has been on the market and it's not getting showings, that's a signal that the market is not accepting your product and something needs to change. Not getting any feedback IS feedback.
• Your house is not competing against your neighbor's house that sold a year ago. It is competing with every reasonable alternative that's on the market right now.

For buyers: We are in a market that is easier for buyers, but that does not mean it's affordable. It's helpful that prices have come down 2.6% from last year; however, homes are still 50% more expensive than they were a few years ago. Taxes are higher, insurance is more expensive, maintenance is more expensive. The cost of money (ie interest rates) is 2.5x what they were at their lowest point during COVID. I said it in my last newsletter and I'll say it again. The affordability crisis is real.

If you're buying right now, here's my advice:

• Ask yourself how long you plan to live in the home.
• Ask your agent about seller concessions to go toward buying down your interest rate. Negotiating $5k off the price may be less impactful than negotiating $5k to buy down your rate temporarily or permanently.
• Interest rates fluctuate. Will they ever go back down to 2.5%-3%? I think it's doubtful. I wouldn't pin your home-buying plans solely on today's rate. Remember: it has to make sense and it has to make cents.

We don't have a crystal ball. There are macroeconomic forces at play that could throw everything out of whack again. There are people out there who get paid a lot of money to make predictions and I'm not one of them. The best I can do is use my experience as an agent and the "boots-on-the-ground" knowledge I'm acquiring every day to give you relevant information that may affect your real estate plans today.

Some of you might read this newsletter and have questions about the market or about your particular situation. That's OK, I'm here for you. If you read this newsletter and you find that you actually have more questions about the ship The Titanic just know that I've actually never seen the movie Titanic, which I'm pretty sure is the most historically accurate record we have, so I probably won't be able to help.

Now, if you want to talk about the sinking of the MTS Oceanos and how a ragtag crew of the ship's entertainers were responsible for saving over 550 lives, I'm your man.

Down With The Ship: The Sinking Of The Oceanos – Snap Classic